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  1. Home
  2. Articles
  3. Strengthening the ROK-US Alliance for Chinese and North Korean Deterrence: How the US Can Address South Korea’s Population Crisis

Strengthening the ROK-US Alliance for Chinese and North Korean Deterrence: How the US Can Address South Korea’s Population Crisis

March 17, 2026 Research

by Ashlynn Lester

This article was written by a graduate student at the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa as part of their research with the Indo-Pacific Policy Lab.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the tensions occurring in the relationship between South Korea and the United States during the Lee Jae Myung and Donald Trump presidencies. The US hopes South Korea will take on more of the burden for defense in the Indo-Pacific thereby urging them to increase their military budget. The push for South Korean self-reliance in terms of defense however has major problems stemming from the lack of soldiers and workers the country possesses due to their ongoing population issues. Experts warn the country may experience an economic slowdown in the near future. In an effort to mitigate this, South Korea hopes to advance certain sectors of their economy to facilitate more technological innovations; however, for this to succeed, they require highly-skilled professionals which they currently lack. To improve relations with South Korea and ensure the country does not turn to China to fill their labor shortage, the US should invest in its universities and Korean language programs and push more university students to achieve graduate degrees in programs relating to the industries South Korea hopes to develop.

Introduction

The United States of America maintains a close relationship with South Korea and finds itself increasingly relying on its relationship to deter the threat that China represents in the region. The relationship between the two countries remains mutually beneficial, South Korea has long depended on the US for security against its antagonistic northern neighbor and for economic development after the devastation of the Korean War. With the current Trump administration however, the relationship between these allies is under strain. The US recently pushed South Korea to increase their defense spending, lessening their dependence on the US. South Korea accepted the conditions yet announced their growing concerns with the dependability of the US’s protection. Moreover, with the events that occurred in 2025 at the Hyundai plant in Georgia that involved the arrest of South Korean nationals by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), South Korea seeks to become more self-reliant and continue to normalize relations with other countries including China. With their ongoing demographic issues, South Korea faces many challenges in its plans for self-reliance, mostly who will staff these operations critical to the country’s defense? Additionally, the population issue presents the possibility that the country will experience an economic downturn that will negatively impact their financial ability to continue investing in their defense. The declining population poses a huge problem to the country and to the US’s continued efforts to mitigate the threat posed by China. The push for self-reliance in South Korea will remain impossible for the time being since they currently lack the professional workforce to achieve this goal. With the population projected to continue to decrease at a rapid rate, these existing problems will only be further exacerbated. This poses a problem for the US, who depends on their relationship with South Korea and Japan, who are also experiencing a rapid population decline, to secure their interests in the region. 

Background Information

Beginning with the Korean War, the US and South Korea maintain a mutually beneficial relationship that secures US interests in the Indo-Pacific and defends against the threat posed by North Korea. In 1953, the US and South Korea signed the Mutual Defense Treaty that transformed into a strategic partnership. The US continues to be committed to the security of South Korea by regularly engaging in combined exercises, selling military equipment, and modernizing South Korea’s defenses. According to the US Department of State, all these measures support South Korea’s, “eventual leadership of the combined defense forces and strengthen its role as a regional security partner.”[1]

In addition to defense, the US played a major role in South Korea’s development. The United States offered aid for the country to rebuild after the destruction of the Korean War and continued to foster peace on the peninsula through the constant defense of South Korea. Under the leadership of Park Chung Hee (1962-1979), South Korea transformed from an agrarian society to a manufacturing one. With the combined efforts of the two countries, South Korea’s economy evolved into a powerhouse in the region. During this time period, the country’s relationship with the US also underwent a transformation. From September 1964 to March 1973, the country sent over 300,000 troops to South Vietnam to help aid the US during the Vietnam War. The sending of troops showcased South Korea’s commitment to the anti-communist rhetoric touted by the US which helped to strengthen the relationship between the two countries. After the war, the US helped modernize South Korea’s army and provided more economic aid. Their involvement in the war changed South Korea’s position from simply an aid recipient to a critical ally helping to advance the US’s interests in the Indo-Pacific.

Since the beginning of the alliance, South Korea along with Japan have served as a buffer to the threats posed by North Korea and China. As tensions rise between China and the US, increasing South Korea’s military defense budget remains a major issue for the alliance.[2] Moreover, the US is urging the country to strengthen their independent operational capabilities. South Korea agreed to this increase in the defense budget; however, due to a growing distrust of the current Trump administration, the country framed these measures as a way to become more self-reliant as they brace for the possibility of the US backing out of the long-held defense agreement.[3] With the continued urging of an increase in South Korea’s role in defense of the peninsula, problems emerge due to the ongoing demographic issue the country faces. Over the last six years, the military shrunk by 20% despite the country maintaining their compulsory military service system that remains in place due to the technically ongoing war between North and South Korea. In August of 2025, the BBC reported the South Korean military maintained a force of 450,000 people however, South Korean researchers found that in order to continue defending the country, they need to maintain at least 500,000 soldiers. The continued birth rate decline in the country places South Korea’s military in a dire position especially when considering the North Korean military is believed to contain 1.3 million active-duty members.[4] In 2024, the fertility rate sat at 0.74, far below the replacement rate of 2.1 and the lowest among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. The dismal fertility rate not only stands to negatively impact military conscription, but also push the country into an economic downturn by 2040 according to the Bank of Korea. Therefore, the US needs to be careful of how much they push for South Korea’s military to become self-reliant. If the number of soldiers South Korea’s military maintains continues to fall and the economy heads towards a downturn, the US may need to ramp up their defense efforts in South Korea to continue deterring North Korean and Chinese threats. 

Maintaining a strong, stable relationship with South Korea must be a priority in the US’s plans for defense and deterrence in Asia to contain the threat that China and North Korea pose to US national interest in the region. Continuing to nurture a strong relationship with South Korea ensures they do not ally themselves with China at the expense of US national interests. South Korea and China share a long trade and diplomatic history that could damper the US’s securing of national interests in the region if this bond between the two East Asian nations is further nurtured. South Korea’s emerging distrust of the US and its willingness to continue providing security highlights the growing cracks in this long and beneficial relationship between the two that has the potential to disrupt the US’s plans for Chinese deterrence.

South Korea’s Role in Deterring China

Recently, the US has pushed South Korea to increase its military spending in an effort to make the country more self-reliant. The country represents an important strategic area for the US in its efforts to defend against China should China make a move against the US. South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines, according to the chief of the US Forces Korea (USFK) General Xavier Brunson, are grouped in a “strategic triangle.” The call for these countries to contribute more to collective defense stems from the need to deter countries like China and North Korea in light of the intensifying Sino-US rivalry. South Korea’s importance in the triangle rests with its position on the continent. The USKF headquarters located in Camp Humphreys is situated about 160 miles from Pyongyang and 610 miles from Beijing, allowing the US to strategically position its already present forces to deal with threats from both China and North Korea.[5]

The US specifically wants South Korea to invest in long-range firepower, integrated air and missile defense, space warfare, and electronic warfare. The hope is that by increasing their military budget, the country will strengthen their independent operational capabilities and take some of the burden off the US in terms of defending the southern half of the peninsula. Furthermore, with tensions increasing between China and the US, South Korea’s military might work to deter China from interfering with US interests in the region.[6]

Under the new presidency of Lee Jae Myung, South Korea agreed to increase their defense spending vowing to build a more self-reliant military. He claimed the country would increase defense spending by 8.2% to create advanced weapons systems, drones, and precision-guided missiles. Lee stressed that the South Korea-US military alliance still stood strong, but many South Koreans worry about the “America First” agenda touted by US President Donald Trump. The constant threat of tariffs by the new US administration and the transactional approach the US is now taking to security has caused many Koreans to worry that the US may demand higher payments from the country to maintain the US forces stationed there.[7]

Concern also arose about South Korea’s military wartime operational control. As of now, the commander of the US forces in South Korea maintains wartime operational control of the Korean military. On one side of the debate, South Korea controlling their own military’s wartime operational control is framed as a critical issue in terms of national sovereignty. The other side worries that shifting control to South Korea would result in the breakdown of the US and South Korea alliance.[8] The Trump presidency has increased the South Korean public’s worry about the alliance and the US taking a step back from its long-held duties within the region. Furthermore, the talks of tariffs and the demand for the South Korean government to invest $350 billion in US industries in order to avoid the high tariffs Trump threatened to impose on the country also upset the Korean public.

Economic Relations Between South Korea and the US

The trade talks between the two countries in October ended with South Korea agreeing to the $350 billion dollar investment in the US in return for pledging to lower the tariff rate on South Korean goods to fifteen percent. These goods include automobiles, auto parts, timber, pharmaceuticals, etc. The talks also resulted in South Korea reducing the regulations on US automotives and only enforcing its environmental laws when they do not distort trade or investments with the US.[9] These demands made by the Trump administration worried the Korean public who believe the $350 billion investment would ruin South Korea’s economy, lead to exports declining, and reduce domestic production. To ease the public’s concerns, companies such as Samsung, SK group, and other large South Korean companies pledged to increase their investments domestically. Samsung declared they will expand their domestic operations and build another production line in the country to meet the market demands for semiconductors over a period of five years. Additionally, Hyundai Motor Group announced an investment of $86.3 billion to fund domestic research and development in new technologies including artificial intelligence (AI).[10]

The Korean economy remains a point of concern not only due to the trade deal made with the Trump administration, but also because of the declining population. In 2024, the country’s birth rate sat at 0.75 births per woman. Although the rate increased from the reported 0.721 in 2023, the country’s fertility rate ranks the lowest among the OECD countries.[11] If the decline continues, experts warn the population has the potential to shrink by half come 2100.[12] In addition to the low fertility rate, the country is also dealing with a rapidly aging population. In 2024, the Korea Times reported that South Koreans aged 65 and older represented around 20% of the population with senior citizens numbering 9.94 million.[13] The large percentage of older South Korean citizens led to the UN classifying South Korea as a “super-aged” society.[14] The rate of senior citizens in South Korea is only projected to continue increasing, leading to serious demographic problems in the near future.

Demographic Issues and the Threat of an Economic Slow Down

The declining fertility rate and the aging population threatens the economic stability of South Korea. The population of people in their 70s outnumbered people in their 20s while the number of 20-year-olds has continued to decline for four years in a row. Additionally, this age group of people in their 20s are experiencing a lack of employment opportunities in the country. Major Korean businesses are shifting away from hiring young workers and favoring experienced workers instead. Almost 30 percent of entry level positions in the 500 largest South Korea-based firms were filled by experienced workers.[15] All of these issues point towards the country experiencing a sustained economic slowdown in the near future. There is hope however that technological innovation could offset the decline and mitigate some of the side effects of the demographic problems.[16]

President Lee Jae Myung’s administration has urged companies to invest in technological innovation and has stated they intend to explore their policies to foster an improved business setting for companies to thrive. In light of this push, Hyundai pledged to start developing new technologies including AI, robotics, and self-driving cars while Samsung shared their plans to create AI data centers in the South Jeolla Province.[17] In recent years, South Korea has quickly advanced its AI technology with the support of the government’s investment of $1 billion making the country one of the leaders in the global AI market. The country also remains one of the top producers of semi-conductors and seeks to improve their production of biotechnologies and space technologies. One major problem facing the development of all these technological innovations pertains to the lack of professionals in these fields residing in the country. Due again to the demographic issues, global partnerships are needed for South Korea to continue pursuing technological innovations and in turn preventing the economy from slowing down.[18] 

The demographic issue not only affects the economy, but also the country’s defense. With the US’s push for South Korea’s military to become more self-reliant, more of the burden of defending the country from the north falls on South Korea’s forces. Over the last six years however, South Korea’s military forces shrunk by 20% despite the country’s compulsory military service system. The system requires all able-bodied men to serve 18 months in the military unless they meet certain requirements. Researchers in July of this year compared North Korea’s believed forces of around 1.3 million active-duty members to South Korea’s 450,000. They warned that if the North attacks, a force of at least 500,000 soldiers would be needed to defend the nation.[19]

The mandatory military service system employed by the South Korean government remains unpopular amongst the male population. For them, it disrupts their career and educational plans. Some also argue in terms of gender equality calling the system unfair to men and favoring women who are not forced to serve in the military. Although not subject to the mandatory military service system, some women do serve in the army which opens the conversation to possibly conscripting women. Expanding the compulsory military service system to women however remains unpopular amongst the general public.[20] Conscripting women could solve the issue of the country’s lacking manpower in the defense of the country though only temporarily. The birth rate continues to rest well below the replacement level with no indication that it will rise. The US’s hope to step back from the defense duties it historically managed might prove impossible. Although South Korea intends to increase its military budget and possesses more advanced weaponry than the North, an increase in manpower is still required to deter North Korean aggression on the peninsula and possible Chinese threats within the region.

The motivation behind the US’s plans for South Korea’s military to become more self-reliant revolves around their hope to deter China. By pushing the country to invest more in its defense and modernize its military, the US hopes to create a “burden-sharing alliance” that includes not only South Korea but also other countries within the Indo-Pacific such as Japan and Australia. South Korea’s role in this Indo-Pacific alliance would center on evolving their long-range firepower, developing integrated air and missile defense, and creating the technology to engage in space and electronic warfare.[21] Although South Korea now possesses the funds to enhance their military technology and capabilities, the population crisis still looms overhead. The possibility remains that the country’s economy might enter a downturn and not be able to continue footing the large bill requested by the US government.

South Korea’s Evolving Military and the Acquirement of a Nuclear-Powered Submarine

Recently, on October 29, 2025, President Trump announced on his social media that he approved a deal to allow South Korea to build a nuclear-powered submarine with the help of the US. This development occurred during the meeting between President Trump and President Lee regarding the tariffs the US administration planned to place on the country. Possessing a submarine of this sort places South Korea at an advantage within the Indo-Pacific region providing them with greater capabilities to deter North Korean aggression or even possibly Chinese threats. Giving South Korea the green light to proceed with developing their own nuclear-powered submarine showcases the important defense role the US hopes the country will play in the near future. The only other countries the US has helped to develop nuclear-powered submarines include the United Kingdom and Australia.[22]

Nuclear-powered submarines change the capabilities of South Korea’s naval warfare. Currently, with the diesel-electric submarines utilized by the country they are mainly used to attack surface vessels and bombard sites located on the shore; however, these new submarines possess the speed and ability to successfully attack other submarines. This ability proves beneficial for the U.S.-ROK alliance as North Korea possesses one of the world’s largest subsurface forces. Additionally, according to James Holmes, the J.C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College, once the country constructs enough nuclear-powered submarines it will “be able to maintain a permanent, rotating, largely undetectable presence in waters adjoining the Korean Peninsula. A standing presence will cast a shadow across policy and strategy deliberations in Pyongyang—potentially inducing new restraint with Kim Jong-un’s regime.”[23] This partnership between the US and South Korea appears to be a step in the right direction for South Korean self-reliance and their ability to play a larger role in the deterrence of North Korea and China. 

Problems with the construction of the new submarines have occurred concerning the amount of nuclear fuel South Korea can produce based on the 2015 Atomic Energy Peaceful Uses Agreement. This issue revolving around nuclear fuel leads to the predicament of where to build this vessel. The Prime Minister of South Korea, Kim Min-seok, went on record to declare that currently, the Hanwha Philly Shipyard, a Korean-owned shipyard located on the banks of the Delaware River, does not possess the capabilities to develop the submarine. The country’s Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back also brought to the attention of the National Assembly the Hanwha Philly Shipyard’s shortcomings, opening up the possibility of instead constructing the nuclear-powered submarine in South Korea. As of now, it is unclear where the vessel will be constructed and when construction will start.[24] This partnership though has the potential to help grow the important relationship between South Korea and the US while also providing South Korea the tools to protect itself.

Issues Concerning the Hyundai Plant in Georgia

As South Korea remains an important ally in the Indo-Pacific and is set to play a critical role in the deterrence of China, maintaining a positive relationship needs to be a priority of the US. The Trump administration’s harsh immigration enforcement however has negatively impacted the relationship between the two allies. On September 4, 2025, federal agents raided a Hyundai plant under construction and rounded up around 300 South Korean workers. These detained workers allege that they were detained in unsanitary conditions and faced discrimination at the hands of federal agents. The treatment of these workers outraged the South Korean public and led the country to dispatch their diplomats in Washington to Savannah, Georgia in an effort to help the workers return home.[25] Additionally, since South Korea pledged to invest hundreds of billions of dollars into the US, the public felt betrayed over the treatment of South Korean nationals.[26]

According to US immigration officials, they detained the South Korean workers due to issues with their visas. Some of them held expired visas or received visa waivers which prohibited them from working.[27] In the past, South Korean companies’ use of short-term visas and visa waivers were tolerated by the US government; however, the Trump administration’s harsh immigration enforcement suddenly stopped this practice. To avoid these immigration incidents, South Korea has long been asking for the US to create a new visa category for skilled workers. Their requests were denied by US officials once again.[28] Instead, the US agreed to continue allowing South Korean companies to utilize the B-1 short-term business visas or the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) to bring in skilled workers.[29]

In late November, construction of the Hyundai plant resumed with some of the previously detained workers returning to provide their services. Hyundai hopes to have the plant operating by the first half of next year.[30] Although South Korean officials and Hyundai reaffirmed their relationship with and investment into the US, the denial of a new visa category and the abysmal treatment of South Korean workers left a negative impression on the South Korean public. With the South Korean government and companies agreeing to invest in the American economy, it is important that the US ensures South Korean workers are treated well in the US and that the visa system is adapted to their needs. South Korea remains a global leader in semi-conductor production, EV production, and AI. Their expertise in these fields remain valuable for the US. Moreover, ensuring the relationship between the two countries remains strong is important for the US’s deterrence plans in the Indo-Pacific. With South Korea’s looming population crisis, their expertise in certain valuable fields, and their willingness to invest in the US economy, improving the relationship with South Korea needs to be a priority for the US.

Possible US Solution for South Korea’s Demographic Issues

South Korea hopes to mitigate some of the effects the demographic crisis threatens to unleash on the country’s economy through technological innovations. Unfortunately, they lack the workforce needed to successfully use technological innovations to make up for the issues caused by the declining population. With the US’s large population, educating students and workers to fill in the gaps within South Korea’s labor market may prove advantageous to the US’s overall hopes for deterring China and North Korea through a strong partnership with South Korea. Introducing incentives to study in fields relating to the technological innovations South Korea intends to pursue, such as AI, biotechnologies, and space technologies, and for learning Korean will help the US build a stronger relationship with the country and ensure they do not turn away from the US and towards China for help. Reinstating government funded language fellowships such as the Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowship (FLAS), which provides financial assistance to students studying certain languages including Korean, would help in this situation and provide students interested in working in South Korea the language skills needed to thrive in the Korean job market. By providing the skilled labor force they need, it will help ensure the projected economic downturn does not occur in South Korea, allowing them to continue investing large amounts of money into their own military, further lessening the financial burden of defense in the Indo-Pacific on the US.

Ensuring US students are highly educated and skilled must be a priority if the US should attempt to fill the labor shortage in South Korea. The South Korean public remains one of the most educated in the world. The majority of South Korean citizens possess a university degree, and in 2024, 71% of the country’s 25–34-year-olds completed a tertiary education. Even though this young population is educated, the employment rate of this group sits at 80% which is relatively low compared to other OECD countries.[31] For Americans to stand out in the competitive Korean job market, they need to possess more than a bachelor’s degree or some sort of vocational training in the fields South Korea is looking to expand. Pursuing a graduate degree may be the answer to this issue. South Korea’s rate of citizens attaining a master’s or doctoral degree sits at 3% among young adults. The country possesses an unusually high amount of citizens with a bachelor’s degree and an unusually low amount with a graduate degree. Introducing and advertising more grants, scholarships, and fellowships to help American students earn a graduate degree in programs related to AI, biotechnologies, and space technologies, while simultaneously funding and developing more Korean language programs in US universities, would help the US develop the highly skilled workforce the South Korean economy requires.

Developing more Korean language learning centers across US universities ensures students seeking to work abroad in South Korea are equipped with the language skills and are familiar with the customs of the country which will make them more competitive in the Korean job market and help them better adapt to South Korean society. For almost its entire history, South Korea has been a mostly ethnically homogenous nation, making it hard for immigrants to fit in with their society. With globalization and the many years the two Koreas have been separated, the country is turning away from ethnic nationalism and has become more accepting of non-Korean immigrants. A study conducted on South Korean university students found that a new form of nationalism, which the researcher in charge of the study named globalized cultural nationalism, was forming amongst the youth of the country. This nationalism centered itself on more universal values such as modernity and transnationalism; therefore, young South Koreans were more accepting of Korean and non-Korean immigrants from wealthy countries who shared in these values than they were of Koreans from North Korea or other poorer countries.[32] Although the findings of this study were published almost ten years ago, scholars studying the country’s evolving nationalism and its acceptance of immigrants show the continuation of globalized cultural nationalism and how it is adapting to become what is called calculated nationalism. Essentially, Koreans are becoming more individualized which makes them willing to help contribute to national development only when they are likely to experience personal benefits.[33] This leads the population to be less welcoming of Korean immigrants from poorer countries as they feel they are a burden on their society but more accepting of immigrants from countries like the US due to the economic benefits they along with the country could reap. 

By creating a highly educated and skilled workforce prepared to integrate into South Korean society, the US would ensure South Korea escaped an economic downturn and continued to develop key technologies that would not only benefit them but also the US. Moreover, by increasing the amount of American immigrants working in South Korea’s key fields, it deepens and strengthens the long-standing relationship between the two. Moreover, this economic relationship ensures that South Korea does not turn towards China to supply its workforce and deepen their relationship at the expense of US interests.

South Korea and China for much of their respective histories, maintained a close relationship. After the split of the Korean peninsula and China’s support for North Korea, the ties between the two were strained. In more recent history however, the two have reestablished diplomatic and economic relations. During the 32nd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders’ Meeting held last year, the two signed over ten cooperation documents concerning trade, finance, agriculture, and science and technology. Both countries are actively seeking to deepen their economic ties, especially after the uncertainty that surrounded the US’s threats of high tariffs. Furthermore, South Korea depends heavily on Chinese markets since their economy relies largely on exports of semiconductors, automobiles, and batteries to China. With China’s relatively recent economic and technologic advancements, their labor force is evolving. China’s producing highly skilled workers in some of the technological fields South Korea seeks to expand.[34] Additionally, China’s advancement in green energy works well with South Korea’s hopes of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 as opposed to the US which is seeking to advance its fossil fuel and natural gas industry while actively pulling its resources away from green initiatives under the current administration. If China fills in this labor force gap in South Korea before the US does, it presents the possibility that South Korea will increasingly turn to China and strengthen their diplomatic relationship in a way that could prove harmful to US interests in the Indo-Pacific, especially since they play a crucial role in the US’s plans for deterrence in the region.

Currently, South Korea claims to represent a force of unity within the region, especially between the US and China. According to the South Korean ambassador to the United States during an online forum hosted by the Korea Institute at Harvard, the country seeks to be a “bridge” between global powers. She stated, “We feel the pressure, of course, like all countries with important relationships with either or both powers, but given our own capabilities, Korea cannot be a passive player when we can play a constructive role as a credible bridge of stability.”[35] Due to their dependence on both countries, it works best for them, at present, to play this role as a sort of mediator between the two powers. Although, the recent actions taken by the US concerning South Korea may push the country to ally itself closer to China.

Conclusion

South Korea is set to play an important role in the US’s plans for deterrence against China and North Korea in the Indo-Pacific; however, tensions have emerged between the two allies. The push for military self-reliance, the treatment of South Korean nationals apprehended by ICE, and the threat of tariffs damaged the trust South Korea possessed in its relationship with the US. Alleviating the South Korean public’s distrust of the US should be a priority for the US. One way to address this issue is to fill the gap in South Korea’s workforce that is emerging due to the country’s declining population before they turn to China’s labor force. Since the country seeks to mitigate the negative impacts of the demographic issue on their economy through technological innovation, South Korea requires a large foreign, highly skilled workforce able to integrate into their society; which, the US can provide if they reinvest in higher education and Korean language programs while pushing university students to pursue graduate degrees in programs related to AI, biotechnologies, and space technologies.

Ashlynn Lester is a graduate student and a member of the Indo-Pacific Policy Lab at the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa.

The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Center for Indo-Pacific Affairs or any organization with which the author is affiliated.

© 2026 University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa Center for Indo-Pacific Affairs. All rights reserved.


[1] Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, “U.S. Security Cooperation With the Republic of Korea (ROK),” US Department of State, January 20, 2025.

[2] Kyeongdoo Jeong, “The Future of the ROK-U.S. Alliance: Adapting to a Changing World,” Center For Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), September 30, 2025.

[3] Hyung-Jin Kim and Tong-Hyung Kim, “South Korea’s President Calls for More Self-Reliant Military as Questions Arise About U.S. Commitment,” The Associated Press, September 30, 2025.

[4] Koh Ewe, “South Korea Military Shrinks by 20% Due to Low Birthrate,” British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), August 11, 2025.

[5] Minji Lee, “USFK Commander Underscores ‘Strategic Triangle’ Linking S. Korea, Japan, Philippines in ‘East-Up’ Map,” Yonhap News, November 17, 2025.

[6] Eun-joong Kim, “US Official: South Korea Can Deter North Korea, China,” The Chosunilbo, October 8, 2025.

[7] Kim and Kim, “South Korea’s President Calls for More Self-Reliant Military as Questions Arise About U.S. Commitment.”

[8] Ibid.

[9] The White House, “Joint Fact Sheet on President Donald J. Trump’s Meeting with President Lee Jae Myung,” US Government, November 13, 2025.

[10] Tong-Hyung Kim, “Samsung and Other South Korean Firms Pledge Larger Domestic Investments After US Tariff Deal,” The Associated Press, November 16, 2025.

[11] Hui Jie Lim, “Miracle Under Threat: South Korea’s Birth Rate Collapse Could Undo Decades of Growth,” Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC), September 27, 2025.

[12] Shahana Yasmin, “South Koreans Aged 70 and Above Outnumber Those in Their 20s for First Time,” The Independent, October 13, 2025.

[13] The Korea Times, “Nearly 20% of Koreans Aged 65 and Older in 2024: Data,” September 26, 2024.

[14] Shahana Yasmin, “South Korea Becomes ‘Super-Aged’ Society as Demographic Crisis Deepens,” The Independent, December 26, 2024.

[15] Yasmin, “South Koreans Aged 70 and Above Outnumber Those in Their 20s for First Time.”

[16] Lim, “Miracle Under Threat.”

[17] Kim, “Samsung and Other South Korean Firms Pledge Larger Domestic Investments After US Tariff Deal.”

[18] Hyerin Kim, Critical and Emerging Technologies Index 2025: South Korea Report, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2025.

[19] Ewe, “South Korea Military Shrinks by 20% Due to Low Birthrate.”

[20] Terrance Matsuo, “South Korean Conscription and the Challenges of a Declining Population,” Korea Economic Institute, November 8, 2023.

[21] Kim, “US Official.”

[22] James Holmes, “South Korea Is Getting Nuclear Submarines? Good!,” The National Interest, December 3, 2025.

[23] Ibid.

[24] Sam Lagrone, “‘It is Reasonable’ to Build RoK Navy Nuclear Sub in South Korean Shipyard, Local Officials Say,” US Naval Institute (USNI) News, November 7, 2025.

[25] Russ Bynum and Tong-Hyung Kim, “Homeland Security Official Says 475 People Were Detained During an Immigration Raid in Georgia,” The Associated Press, September 5, 2025.

[26] Russ Bynum, “Some Korean Workers Detained in Georgia Immigration Raid Have Returned to Their Jobs at Hyundai Site,” The Associated Press, November 13, 2025.

[27] Ibid.

[28] Tong-Hyung Kim, “South Korea Says US Agrees to Let Koreans Work at Sites with Short-Term Visas and Visa Waivers,” The Associated Press, October 1, 2025.

[29] Ibid.

[30] Bynum, “Some Korean Workers Detained in Georgia Immigration Raid Have Returned to Their Jobs at Hyundai Site.”

[31] OECD, “Education at a Glance 2025: Korea,” September 9, 2025.

[32] Emma Campbell, South Korea’s New Nationalism: The End of “One Korea”?, First Forum Press, 2016.

[33] Gil-Soo Han and David Hundt, “The Emergence of Calculated Nationalism in South Korea in the Twenty-First Century,” in The Routledge Handbook of Nationalism in East and Southeast Asia, Taylor & Francis Group, 2023.

[34] Chunji Xuan, “Leveraging APEC: China, South Korea Collaboration Drives Regional Synergy,” Global Times, November 12, 2025.

[35] Andrew Park and Nari Shin, “New South Korean Ambassador to U.S. Says Country Will Take an Active Role in Improving Relations with Neighbors,” The Harvard Crimson, November 14, 2025

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