Technical Report #176.
Griesemer, A.M. and N.D. Holmes. 2011. Newell’s shearwater
population modeling for Habitat Conservation Plan and Recovery
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The Newell’s shearwater (Puffinus auricularis newelli), an IUCN
and ESA listed species, faces terrestrial threats from predation,
fallout (attraction to artificial lights) and collision with powerlines.
Various indices suggest the population has declined by ~75% in the past
two decades. Population modeling is required for Habitat Conservation
Plan (HCP) and Recovery Planning to consider the benefits of existing
and proposed management actions to the Kauai population.
Population scenarios modeled here included a) stable,
realistic and optimal growth; b) threats of predation, fallout and
powerline collision; and c) management actions of minimizing fallout and
powerline mortality, the Save Our Shearwater rescue program, predator
control, predator eradication and chick translocation. The growth rate
(lambda) produced in our worst case threat scenario for all threats
(0.906) fell within the range of annual change suggested by
ornithological radar data from 1993- 2010 using only Newell’s shearwater
traffic (0.899), and Save Our Shearwater data of Newell’s shearwater
fledglings from 1988-2009 (0.905).